At the beginning of this article, I'd like to ask you to answer a few questions:

1. What was the reason for your choice of college major?
2. After graduation, what were the reasons for your selection of your first job?
3. Which industry are you currently in, and what was the reason for your choice?
4. Which city do you currently live in, and why?
5. Are you satisfied with your current life?

There is an interesting saying: When we look back, the crucial choices that influence our lives are often made inadvertently.

Just like the first four questions here: Did you make your choices after careful consideration, or based on some simple, subconscious reasons, or even a sudden impulse?

If it's the former, then you're excellent and very rare. If it's the latter, it doesn't matter because the vast majority of people fall into the latter category, including me.

But that's okay. Any choice and decision is limited by time. The choices we make may already be the best judgment we can make at the moment.

No one can perfectly plan their entire life. So, what we should pursue is never to be perfect and make no mistakes; instead, it's to constantly correct ourselves based on the information and feedback from the outside world as we move forward on the path we've chosen.

This is the topic of today's article. I'd like to talk to you about: When we're faced with some major decisions, what should we do to minimize the chances of regretting our choices?

If you're also troubled by these issues:

I'm not happy with my job. Should I change it?

I've been taking care of my baby at home for two years and don't want to waste my time. What should I learn?

I've been struggling in a city for six years and feel lost about the future. Should I keep going or go back to my hometown?

I've been working in a traditional enterprise for the past ten years and feel there's no future. I want to make a career transition. Which industry should I start with?

...

Then, I hope today's article can offer you some help.

I

In most cases, the problems with decisions stem from four main reasons.

I'll collectively refer to them as the 4Fs.

Details are provided below.

1. Frame

What are the prerequisites for making a decision? There are three points:

1. Confirm the goal you want to achieve.
2. Obtain sufficient and reliable information.
3. Identify the alternative options based on the goal and information.

These three points together form the framework for decision-making. For most decisions, the most critical problems lie in the framework.

Let me give you an example.

Many years ago, when I was working at an advertising agency, I mentored a recent graduate. His performance was mediocre, neither outstanding nor problematic, but I always felt he lacked enthusiasm. So, I had a chat with him to understand his thoughts and reasons.

As a result, his answer was:

Isn't work just about selling your labor in exchange for a paycheck? Why should I be enthusiastic?

To this day, I still remember his answer clearly. Because "I don't like my current job" and "work is just selling labor" are two different things: The former means I'm not satisfied with my current job and can look for other jobs that I can be passionate about, which can bring me happiness and a sense of achievement. However, the latter perception completely denies and eliminates such a possibility.

The problem here lies in the framework. In his cognitive framework, work is inherently incompatible with enthusiasm, happiness, and satisfaction - which means that no matter which industry he chooses, it's difficult for him to receive feedback and find joy in his work.

Similarly, many people's problems also lie in the framework.

I often receive questions from readers. Many of them have been working for 8 or 10 years, have reached a bottleneck, and are not willing to settle for this. They want to know how to make a career transition. But when I ask about their self-understanding and self-awareness, about what they like and what they're good at, their answers are often confused: They don't know.

Based on this, it's very difficult to make effective judgments and choices. Even if they manage to make a decision, it's often like crossing a river by feeling the stones, taking one step at a time.

Similarly, if you're in a very closed circle where everyone follows a similar path and development direction, you may not even know that there are other possible paths.

These problems occur because our cognitive and decision-making frameworks are too narrow, limiting our goals, information, and alternative options - there are many possibilities that may never come into our view.

So, I've always emphasized one point: Expanding your cognitive boundaries, expanding your understanding of the world is extremely important.

When you know nothing about the world, the decisions you make are actually just a matter of luck.

So, how can we break out of this dilemma?

1. Expand your horizons.

A simple suggestion is to step out of your familiar patterns, interact more with people from different fields and industries, learn about how they work and live, and try to understand how the world operates.

Find out: Where do others get their information? What's their lifestyle? Are there things you've never touched on that you can consider exploring?

This will greatly expand the possibilities for your thinking and choices.

2. Reflect on your decision-making framework.

Try to list all the limiting conditions from the bottom of your heart - no matter how obvious they may seem. Then ask yourself: Do these conditions really hold?

For example: I'm reluctant to leave the big city because it offers me many opportunities.

• Really? Are these opportunities available to me? Will I have no other opportunities if I leave this city? Are all my abilities and experiences tied to these opportunities?

Another example: I can't bear to part with this job because it pays well.

• How much do I need this income at present? Is it to satisfy my desires, my survival, my development, or just the mentality of "I can earn money"?

And so on. This is a difficult task, but it's also a way to better understand yourself and face your inner self.

3. Step out of the box.

Always ask yourself: Do I have other options?

Don't limit yourself to the decision-making framework you see - it's often presented to you after being filtered, judged, and spread by others.

Amidst these passive value outputs, learn to take the initiative in controlling information.

2. Fear

Our emotions are like wild horses, while reason is the reins - unfortunately, many times, we're often startled by the wild horses' galloping and forget that we're holding the reins.

Here, the two most common mistakes we make are greed and fear.

In fact, their essence is the same - they stem from the aversion to loss.

Behavioral economists such as Daniel Kahneman and Thaler conducted an experiment: They divided the participants into two groups, A and B. They gave each person in Group A a cup and told them: This cup is yours. You can take it home or sell it at a price of your choice.

Then, they gave each person in Group B a sum of money and told them: You can take the money away or use it to buy a cup from Group A.

What was the result? In Group A, the median price set by those willing to sell the cup was 5.79;inGroupB,themedianpriceofferedbythosewillingtobuythecupwas5.79;inGroupB,themedianpriceofferedbythosewillingtobuythecupwas2.25.

For the same cup, the two groups gave valuations that differed by more than twice.

Why? The reason is very simple. For Group A, the cup was an item they "already owned," so their judgment of the cup's value increased. For Group B, they had money, so their judgment of the value of money also increased.

That is, both groups thought that what they owned was more valuable.

There have been many similar experiments, and the results are consistent.

If you think further, you'll find something interesting:

In the above experiment, Group A first received the cup and then chose whether to sell it. So, their initial state was set as "I have a cup. Should I sell it?"

Group B's initial state was set as "I don't have a cup. Do I want to buy it?" - Then, the aversion to loss came into play.

That is, our judgment of the value of things and the basis for our decisions are affected by our psychological "initial state":

We think we should own something - even if we don't actually own it, we'll strongly resist losing it.

This is the root cause of most people's irrational decisions.

I gave up other opportunities and my family for development and came to the big city. The opportunities here should belong to me, so I'm not willing to "lose" them.

I've been working hard in this company for three years but haven't been promoted. I've already put in so much, so I'm not willing to "lose" the possible promotion opportunities.

I've been following a certain stock but didn't buy it. Then it skyrocketed, so I regretted it and quickly bought in, hoping to recover the "lost" profits - but ended up getting stuck at the peak...

Daniel Kahneman found that when people face losses and can't avoid them, they're willing to take higher risks than usual - when the external fear signals stimulate our amygdala, our rational brain is suppressed, and the signals from the amygdala are amplified, making us enter the fight-or-flight response.

Either we completely shrink into our comfort zones and hesitate to move forward, or we get overly excited, regardless of the costs, benefits, and possibilities, and won't stop until we hit a wall.

If we can't hold the reins, the most likely outcome is to rush off a cliff.

How can we break the interference of emotions on us? The method I use most often is the quantification + two-way comparison method.

For example, when it comes to the question of whether to change jobs because you haven't been promoted, an effective way of thinking is:

If I stay, how long might it take for me to get promoted? Can the benefits of promotion cover the costs? What can I do to shorten this time cost?

If I choose to leave, what are the costs I'll have to pay? What are the expected benefits I might get? Can I do something to reduce the costs and increase the benefits?

In this process, three points need to be noted:

Exclude the interference of sunk costs: What I've already paid doesn't matter. The key is to look at the future.

Consider the possibilities as objectively as possible: Exclude the interference of emotions and ask yourself how much you believe it will come true.

Factor in opportunity costs: If I don't do this, what alternative options do I have? The results they bring also need to be considered.

When you start to think rationally, even if the result may not be accurate, you've already successfully regained control of your brain.

3. Familiar

Think about it. Most of the time, your judgments are basically based on two reasons: First, the information others tell you (which you may be skeptical about); second, your own experiences, knowledge, and memories of similar things.

For example:

Maybe I'll stay for another year or two. People in other departments seem to get promoted after staying for a few more years.

These companies are all using this method. Let's invest some money and give it a try.

This industry has been doing well in the past few years. I'll choose it!

But most of the time, experience isn't that reliable.

The reasons are simple: First, experience makes us exaggerate the similarities between things and ignore the differences; second, experience is from the past and static, while the times are constantly developing. Our misjudgment of time often affects the results.

In the examples above, it's quite obvious: Is the situation in other departments the same as yours? Are those companies the same as ours? Is the general environment and background the same as it was a few years ago?

In an industry I was involved in before, I encountered a competitor who tried to replicate their venture capital experience in other industries - burn money, expand the scale, educate users, occupy the market, build the brand, and then sell it for cash.

As a result, due to the small market capacity and limited imagination space of the industry, the funds couldn't keep up, and the early investments didn't yield returns. Later, the stores they opened one by one had to close.

More importantly, can you be sure that your experience is definitely correct?

Our understanding and perception of things are often based on our existing knowledge. This leads to the fact that the information we receive may be inadvertently distorted, exaggerated, and changed by us, leaving inaccurate and non-objective impressions.

Furthermore, it causes confirmation bias and motivated reasoning. Simply put, based on our existing experience, knowledge, and information, we'll deliberately or inadvertently select external evidence to reach a conclusion that favors our position.

In 2009, there was an experiment: Psychologists asked a popular talk show host to imitate a Republican in a sarcastic tone and then interviewed the viewers. Supporters of the Democratic Party generally thought he was mocking the Republicans; while supporters of the Republican Party thought the media was controlled by the Democrats, and he could only express his position in this way.

That is, what you believe is likely what you'll see.

It's imaginable that when we base our judgments and decisions on such experience, it's very unreliable.

Especially when we "attribute" our past experience, we're likely to summarize some seemingly reasonable "routines" and "patterns": I succeeded because I did these things; I didn't succeed because I didn't do these things.

When we apply these experiences to new problems and new situations, we're prone to making mistakes.

So, how can we solve this problem?

1. Drive decisions with facts and data.

No matter how familiar you are with a field and how much experience you have, please maintain an open mind: Before making a decision, try your best to collect the latest facts, evidence, and data and use them as the basis instead of relying on your own assertions.

2. Pay attention to the differences.

One of the most common mistakes people make is to label things, exaggerate their similarities, and ignore their differences, resulting in a deviation in direction.

Therefore, try to overcome the habit of labeling and focus on the differences and novelties between the problem and your familiar experience. Then ask yourself:

Are these differences important? What changes might they bring? How should I change?

It may not necessarily help you do things right, but it can effectively prevent you from making mistakes.

3. Take small steps and move quickly.

This is the strategy I use most often.

When facing a new situation, I'll draw up a plan based on my past experience, set several milestones, and set expected indicators for each milestone.

If everything goes according to plan and the indicators are perfectly met, then I'll continue and observe; if the indicators fluctuate, it means there's an anomaly - a new problem that doesn't match my experience has occurred. Then, I'll handle it according to the pre - arranged plan.

This way of thinking is very useful and worth practicing and mastering in your life and work.

4. Focus

Psychologists Kruglanski and Higgins proposed a theory called the Regulation mode theory. This theory holds that our decision - making process is actually a "orientation - action" process:

First, we confirm what's lacking in the current situation and what the goal to be achieved is.

Then, we think about how to achieve this goal through action.

In this process, different people have two tendencies.

The first type of people focus more on the goal. They're obsessed with finding the optimal solution and strive to do the right thing in the best way. Such people are called evaluators.

The second type of people focus on action. For them, being in an unsatisfactory state is unacceptable. They'll immediately and decisively take action to reach a better state - that is, they pursue a satisfactory solution. Such people are called actors.

A paper at the end of 2018 pointed out that when making decisions, evaluators often consume a large amount of energy by over - focusing on the "right result," resulting in exhaustion, stress, anxiety, and a sense of frustration - and these are all reasons for the decline in decision - making quality.

Think about it. Are you like this: Facing a difficult choice, you're always indecisive, constantly hesitating between the two options. One moment you think doing it this way is better, and the next moment you tell yourself that doing it that way seems more useful.

In fact, this process itself will seriously occupy your cognitive resources - it will stay in your mind all the time, and these resources can't be released even when you're doing other things.

Over time, it will not only affect your work and life but also weaken your control over your brain.

Under the influence of stress and frustration, you'll reduce the control of reason over your brain and hand the right of choice to emotions and sensibility.

In fact, the author of the paper pointed out that most of the time, actors seem to perform better. They not only make decisions more quickly but are also more satisfied with the quality of their decisions. They're more likely to enter the state of flow and are more likely to get rid of the influence of bad consequences.

 

So, if you are an evaluator, consider these suggestions:

 

1) Transform the optimal solution into a satisfactory solution

You must accept a fact: In this world, there is rarely a perfect approach. Every choice either sacrifices one benefit or another.

 

Therefore, lower your expectations. Instead of pursuing the "optimal solution," aim for a "satisfactory solution."

 

Remember: Satisfaction does not depend on absolute outcomes but on the gap between results and expectations.

 

2) Establish constraints

For example: When selecting industries for investment, I set principles: avoid blind expansion; reject short-term high returns; prioritize teams and products with long-term sustainability.

 

This approach may not yield the "optimal solution" (maximum short-term gains), but it guarantees a "satisfactory solution"—asset safety, steady growth, and positive industry impact.

 

Similarly, when making decisions, set non-negotiable principles based on your values.

 

While this narrows possibilities, it effectively reduces decision-making pressure.

 

3) Adjust your mindset

One or two decisions won’t define your entire life. You will always have opportunities to improve your future.

 

Please believe this.

 

Final practical advice:

 

1. Adopt an observer’s perspective

If you feel stuck, imagine a friend facing the same dilemma. What would you say to comfort or advise them?

 

This creates mental distance from your emotions, allowing space for reflection.

 

You’ll discover insights previously hidden by biases.

 

2. Think inversely: What am I willing to give up?

Decision-making is less about choosing than about relinquishing.

 

This mirrors loss aversion—our paralysis often stems from refusing to sacrifice anything.

 

Break this habit by asking: If forced to choose, what would I abandon?

 

Practice accepting loss. Analyze post-sacrifice scenarios. Gradually, you’ll realize outcomes aren’t as dire as feared.

 

3. Deconstruct the problem

To seek effective guidance, decompose issues into components.

 

For example, asking "Should I join a tech giant or a startup?" invites unhelpful answers because outsiders lack context about your skills, goals, or preferences.

 

Instead, split the decision into factors:

 

If prioritizing career growth, ask: How quickly can I gain promotions/responsibilities in each?

If prioritizing income, ask: What are the compensation structures and trajectories?

This enables targeted advice.

 

4. Take action

Decisions are not endpoints. Their purpose is to improve your life.

 

As stated earlier:

No one can perfectly plan their entire life. We pursue not flawlessness but continuous adaptation.

 

Move forward on your chosen path while remaining open to external feedback—and adjust accordingly.